Brentford Tracker

Two independent simulations: betting at the signal price vs. betting right before kickoff

Signal-time = as if you'd bet the moment the signal appeared, at that price. Closing-time = a completely separate check, right before kickoff, using Pinnacle's own closing price -- a match only counts here if it still clears the 5% edge threshold at that later point. A match can appear in one, both, or neither: if the edge vanished by kickoff, it stays in signal-time only and is correctly left out of closing-time, and vice versa.

Does the market move toward or away from our signals?

Pinnacle odds only -- from signal detection to kickoff, by original edge size. Negative = odds shortened (market moved toward the signal). Positive = odds drifted out (market moved away).

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